Friday is the NHL Draft. Steven Stamkos will smile, put on his Lightning sweater and hat, and back up the Brinks truck. Every year the draft is picked apart and second-guessed, sometimes even before the first guesses are made. It's a thankless task for any GM, even one lucky enough to have the top pick.

Why?

Because there are three things everyone thinks they can do better than the person doing it; drive the car in front of them, be President of the United States, and run a professional sports franchise.

Everyone looks at the Central Scouting Rankings, and assumes the players ranked in a certain order will be drafted in that order. Last year, the top North American ranked skater was Kyle Turris. The first player drafted was Patrick Kane. Kane wound up winning the Calder Trophy. Were the Blackhawks vindicated?

Maybe, maybe not. Turris was picked third, went back to college, in order to play in the World Junior Championships. Just like the previous year's third overall pick...




Yep, Jonathan Toews. So sometimes you can pick a damn fine player (Buffalo took Pierre Turgeon, the consensus #1 can't-miss pick in 1987) only to see greats taken later (The Devils took Brendan Shanahan, the Nordiques took Joe Sakic, and the Flames took Theo Fleury).

Hell, sometimes teams even get steals on guys they themselves passed on. the greatest draft in NHL history saw Edmonton take Kevin Lowe with the 21st pick, after players like Mike Gartner, Michel Goulet, Ray Bourque and Rick Vaive were off the board. They sat through the second round with no pick, watching players like Pelle Lindberg, Mats Naslund, and Dale Hunter get taken. Then in the third round, they plucked this guy off the scrap heap with the #48 pick...




So, you can never tell.