I DON'T KNOW THE WEST FROM ADAM: Western Conference Preview

Last year I did the Eastern Conference .  Pretty much what happened is what always happens. You win some, you lose some...damn, I really thought Carolina was going to be something.

But there are always going to be surprises, just as there were in the West last year...Colorado going from worst team in the West to a playoff spot on the goaltending of Craig Anderson? Yeah, everyone saw that coming. Likewise the emergence of the Phoenix Coyotes, the rash of injuries to the Detroit Red Wings, and the continued employment of Darryl and Brent Sutter.

There will certainly be some things nobody sees coming this season. But, here's my best guess on how the Western Conference will look during the regular season.

15. Columbus - Their big move for the offseason was...Ethan Moreau? The BJs are moving in the wrong direction now, and they are seeing a pretty significant decline in season ticket sales. To make matters worse, Rick Nash is one Tim Horton's run from being able to spend his offseason as Larry the Cable Guy's stunt double.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Nikita Filatov is ready to play in the NHL and put a bunch of pucks into the net. Meanwhile, Steve Mason comes close to his 2008-09 form, when he won the Calder and was a Vezina finalist, and Nash is a top-10 scorer.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: GIT 'ER DUN!!!

14. Minnesota - Two years ago they were a trapping team that only viewed offense as an afterthought, and they scored 214 goals. Last year, Jacques Lemaire was back in New Jersey, Todd Richards brought in an uptempo offense, working on getting the defensemen more involved and setting scorers like Martin Havlat free, and the changes resulted in...214 goals.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Guillaume Latendresse somehow exceeds last year's surprising 27 goal output, Martin Havlat at least breaks the 20 goal plateau, and Niklas Backstrom gets some help back there.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: 214 goals.

13. Calgary - Alex Tanguay? Olli Jokinen? In hockey as in romance, getting back together with old Flames is never a good idea. On the good-news front, it also means Darryl Sutter has run out of old Leafs to pick up.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: In one of those one step back/two steps forward cases, if the Flames completely implode, the Sutters will get canned quickly and unceremoniously. These guys are the wrong men for this job.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Jerome Iginla gets fed up to the point where he kills both Sutters with his bare hands, thus sending one of the few good Calgary players to jail.

12. Edmonton - There are three reasons the Oilers' faithful can finally stop looking back and start looking ahead: Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Hall, Eberle and Paajarvi are the three Calder finalists, and those of us who are less-than-serious hockey bloggers can look forward to an endless run of "Taylor Hall has a horse face" jokes.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: These three start bumming rides from Nikolai Khabibulin.

11. Dallas - Not sure there's anyone who is getting more of a baptism by fire than Kari Lehtonen this season - the Stars' sieve-like defensive play means he'll be like Denis Lemieux in his stall, stopping phantom shots. Is it any wonder why Marty Turco would have damn near gone to Chicago for free?

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Not much for this season, but hopefully they can groom some solid blueliners before Jack Campbell is ready.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Brendan Morrow goes into one of his funks and doesn't pull out of it, Brad Richards doesn't produce like he did last year, and the #11 ranking they have here is over-generous.

10. Anaheim - Chris Pronger goes one year, Scott Niedermayer the next. The blueline is in a transition period, but there are some youngsters like Luca Sbisa and Cam Fowler (whose draft stock dropped from a projected #3 to an actual #12 this summer) who are probably getting their shot.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Kids like Sbisa and Fowler shore up the rear while offensive stalwarts Bobby Ryan, Ryan Gezlaf and Ryan Corey Perry handle putting up big points. They might sneak into the 8-spot in the west.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: They wind up regretting trading James Wisniewski.

9. St. Louis - Davis Payne's goon squad will once again try to pummel teams into submission. The one part of actual hockey where the Blues show proficiency is killing penalties, an area where they get plenty of practice.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Erik Johnson actually develops into a legitimate top-pair defenseman, Jaroslav Halak proves he can be a full-time #1 goalie, and T.J. Oshie hits twine at least 25 times this year.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Halak proves he can't handle a starting role, the PK can't cover for all the whistles they're going to get, and nobody proves able to make the jump to 30-goal scorer.

8. Colorado - last year they rode Craig Anderson's goaltending to a red-hot start, which they were unable to copletely piss away, finally settling into the #8 seed.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: The kids who came up huge last season, like Matt Duchene and P.J. Gallardi continue developing, while Anderson and Peter Mueller prove last year was no fluke.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Last year was a fluke.

7. Nashville - you don't think when they saw Patrick Kane shoot the game-winner past Michael Leighton, these guys didn't think about how close they came to getting a chance to eliminate the Hawks in a Game 6 on home ice, they all didn't just mutter, "MotherFUCKER!"

BEST CASE SCENARIO: The decision to make Shea Weber the Preds' Captain was the right call. Patric Hornqvist emerges as a big-time goal threat, and nobody noticed how slow Pekka Rinne is to get up after butterfly saves. CT recaps all Hawks/Preds games.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Weber tries to do too much, and everyone shoots low on Rinne looking to top-shelf the rebounds. I recap all Hawks/Preds games.

6. Los Angeles - Drew Doughty is really fucking good. If the NHL gave out trophies at Thanksgiving, Anze Kopitar would have won the Hart. They could have beaten the Canucks in the playoffs, but didn't.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Doughty wins his first Norris, Kopitar plays at an elite level all season, Dustin Brown just plays hockey (last year he tried stirring shit with the Hawks and got his ass kicked by Troy Brouwer). Jonathan Quick and Jonathan Bernier become a good goaltending tandem.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Kopitar doesn't bring it for a full season, Bernier isn't ready for prime time, and the Kings don't look for any scoring help at the trade deadline.

5. Phoenix - Anyone wanna buy a hockey team?

BEST CASE SCENARIO: Kids like Mikkel Boedker and Kyle Turris (I actually wanted him over Patrick Kane in the draft) show they're ready to be full-time NHL players. Ilya Bryzgalov continues his outstanding play in goal. They start off hot, and start drawing before the playoffs. Kyle Wellwood brings his hunger to the team.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: They start cold, and you hear the puck rattling around the rink because there's less than 10,000 on any given night.

4 & 3: Detroit/Chicago - These two are an entry, since their circumstances are almost identical...except with the Hawks, it's a matter of whether the younger players can step it up. With Detroit, it's a matter of whether the veterans (9 guys over the age of 35) have anything left in the tank.

For both teams:

BEST CASE SCENARIO: The core players play to their usual elite levels, and role players are able to contribute more than expected, while dodging the injury bug. Also, the goaltending gives the naysayers a big shitburger to eat.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Injuries hit your top 2 lines or your top 2 pairs, the role players are thrust into playing more minutes than their abilities merit, and the goaltending doesn't hold up.

2. San Jose - Out with Evgeni Nabokov, in with Antti Niemi. Rob Blake is gone, making a piss-poor blueline corps worse. For everyone who thinks the offer sheet to Niklas Hjalmarsson was one move in some elaborate chess game, no. They really, really need top-four defensemen,

BEST CASE SCENARIO: They can once again outscore their defensive shortcomings, Niemi proves able to start 60 NHL games behind a less-than-stellar blueline, and they win the division title, and maybe get deep into the playoffs.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Joe Thornton once again vanishes in crunch time, Niemi's huge postseason was a mirage, and they have to trade some of their offensive firepower for defensive help.

1. Vancouver - Not necessarily because they're the best team, or have the best shot at making the Final. They just get a lot of games against Edmonton, Calgary and Minnesota - that's a lot of free points.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: The creepy-assed Sedins, Roberto Luongo, and everyone else carries their usual big regular season to a President's Trophy.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Seeing Willie Mitchell take his concussed head to LA, while Sami Salo winds up out for months after blowing an achilles playing floor hockey, thins out the defensive corps to the point that Luongo has his meltdown before he even sees the Hawks. Still, they're guaranteed a playoff spot, if only by virtue of being top dog in a pen full of Parvo puppies.

There you have it. Check back in April to see just how wrong I was.

 

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  • 9/28/2010 12:09 AM BBM wrote:
    Not to steal Dave Morris's thunder but the hawks will Batusi over the rest of the western conference.

    *makes sound effects*

    you can now back away slowly.
    Reply to this
    1. 9/28/2010 10:34 AM Dave Morris wrote:
      I approve BBM's message.
      Reply to this
      1. 9/28/2010 10:58 AM Dave Morris wrote:
        And to add my own toonie's worth.

        Vancouver Nucklucks. Fuggiddabouddit. Luongo's already tweaked his groin and oh, Keith Ballard has bum shoulder.

        Story here:
        http://www.faceoff.com/hockey/teams/vancouver-canucks/Canucks+sudden+half+empty/3587989/story.html

        Premature Extrapolations:

        Unless injuries derail them, the Hawks, Wings, Kings and Sharks will fight it out for the top seeds in the West. 
         
        The Oilers could be this year's Avs.

        In the NorrisAKACentral, the Preds, Jackets and Blues will fight over the roadkill from the Hawk-Wing cagematch marathon.

        In Northwest, the Avs and Oilers can steal the Nucks' lunch money, and the Flames will BBQ Luongo's carcass. The Wild aren't, and Marty Havlat tweets.

        In the Pacific, the Sharks get harpooned by the Kings and gnawed by the Yotes. The Ducks and the Stars hang around to feast on the remains. 

        Of course, these predictions mean about as much as Pierre McGuire's new assignment covering the Asia Hockey League.
        Reply to this

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